IOWA'S OVERSTATED IMPORTANCE

Notes of Concern…

   …Jack Blair

IOWA’s OVERSTATED IMPORTANCE

I am sure you remember fondly President Santorum.

Equally fondly President Huckabee.

Iowans are fickle. Both Huckabee and Santorum barely eked out a point this year. So all those Iowans who thought they should be president in previous caucus years evidently thought better of it this year. They both scored in the bottom of the pack.

NH isn’t going to be a bell weather either. Native son from Vermont has a seemingly insurmountable lead. It is going to be boring for the DEMS and only slightly interesting for the GOP as the votes will probably mimic the Iowa finishes.

South Carolina is where the primaries will really begin to make a difference in the fortunes of those remaining candidates.

The real story of Iowa was that the peoples’ anger became countable. The outsiders in the parties scored mighty well. The era of establishment politics may well be over. Turnout also demonstrates a renewed voter interest. Many Iowans have been rather disinterested over the past caucuses.

Cruz, Trump, and Rubio are now in it for the long haul. Governor Katich has momentum with the endorsements of The New York Times and the Boston Globe, which should cause him to stay in the race and also bring some new money into his campaign. Those endorsements should also propel voters to take a look at his outstanding record in Washington, D.C., and Ohio. Up to now, he has been relatively unknown outside of Ohio. The papers suggest we should take another look.  

Jeb Bush may stay in because he has the money to do so and is hopeful of a better finish in the South. The best argument against Jeb is he is not seen as a non-establishment candidate and he is being soundly beaten, over and over again by the other Floridian in the race.

All of the others should abandon their campaigns. There is no evidence any one of them can win the nomination, so why continue to spend their supporters' donations in a lost cause. 

Clear the field, folks. Read the tea leaves. Many of the candidates are good people, and there will be important spots for them in the government after the election. And the president will be lucky to have their counsel.

I felt sorry for only one candidate in Iowa: Martin O’Malley. He is a very good man who never got traction. Up against the Clinton machine and the Sanders revolution, he got almost no attention. This is one man who is much better than his vote totals would suggest.

Polling in Iowa has almost always been off. Some years it has been way off. I have a cousin who lives in Iowa, and I asked him about this. He said he got as many as three calls a day asking who he would vote for. He also said most Iowans just gave out different names with each call. 

Call in the morning and ask, and he would say Trump. Call in the afternoon, and he would say Cruz. Call in the evening, and he would say Rubio. He suggested to me that Iowans long ago realized they could have some fun with all this.

Off to New Hampshire.