Notes of
Concern…
…Jackson Blair
No More Debate
The President, or a reasonable facsimile, showed up for the
first debate. He probably wishes he had stayed at home.
The Governor showed up for the second debate, not realizing
he was being double teamed by the President and Candy Crowley, and never seemed
to be able to get his groove back after coming to the realization he was being
ambushed.
After all the dust settled, there seemed to be two “takes”
on the debates.
1.
The President took a big hit in his popularity
and his poll lead as a direct result of his performance in the first debate.
2.
Although widely believed to have been bested by
the President, the after-debate polls showed very little movement as a result
of the perceived Romney loss.
So that made the third and final debate especially
interesting to me. With a proven journalist of the first rank, and one who
understands international subjects, I knew no one would get the best of Bob
Schieffer nor would Schieffer permit any shenanigans.
I also knew that both the President and the Governor would
recognize the importance of this last opportunity to address millions of
viewers.
They would be at their individual best and they would come
prepared.
It would fall to the President to try to bolster his falling
level of support that was the result of the first debate, and hardly staunched
by his excellent performance in the second debate.
It would fall to the Governor to try to hang on to the slim
lead he enjoyed, according to Real Clear Politics prior to the debate, and to
attempt to better that position.
Reasonable people can have very different perspectives on
any subject and that is certainly true of assessing winners and losers in a
political debate. In addition, many
things can occur nationally and internationally between the end of the third
debate and the actual election.
Prognostications are dangerous.
So I will ignore the conventional wisdom and prognosticate.
The President had a good night but I seriously doubt he
turned things around. He landed few punches but he failed to make Governor
Romney look either unqualified or inept.
I doubt the President picked up any new support.
The Governor had a good night in that he did not torpedo his
momentum. He looked presidential and his views were moderate.
I doubt that he lost support.
So if the present trend continues it may well come down to
one state, the state of Ohio, to select the next President of the United
States.
And as I write this column, the president enjoys a very
small lead in Ohio, within the margin of error of all the polls. But the
Governor has momentum in Ohio and has seen his position improve almost daily.
If I had to “call” the election today, after the third
debate, I would predict the election of Mitt Romney by a larger margin than
most think possible for him today.
The caveat?
If the president can stop the Romney momentum, or gain a new
momentum of his own, then I think the election is really a “toss up” and the
result will be quite close.
How about that for “fence sitting?”
