ELEPHANTS DO FORGET !

Notes of Concern…

                               …Jackson Blair

ELEPHANTS DO FORGET

 

The South Carolina primary is over and the Florida primary has not yet taken place. This is a good time for a reality check. It is also a good time for a course correction.

Governor Romney has the war chest and the discipline and the long-term view to continue his quest through all the remaining months up to the GOP convention.

Speaker Gingrich is short on cash and almost wholly backed by a movie mogul who has dipped into his personal bank account to keep the Gingrich campaign alive.

Congressman Paul is the candidate of a very small, vocal minority in the United States. He is a man with a good heart and it is refreshing to hear him put the truth as he sees it right out there in the debates.

Senator Santorum has a personal life style that appeals to the Christian Right and to the Tea Party. He has walked his talk. He has a very small amount of money and it is amazing he has been able to continue to compete in a national contest.

Governor Romney is boring. Boring is OK. Our country does not need a president who can entertain us. We need a president whose experiences in life are transferable to the problems facing us. Governor Romney has executive experience. He has created jobs, made money for shareholders, run a large state government and led in many other ways, quite successfully. Despite what the Governor would have us believe, it does take trust and personality as well as experience to lead a diverse country.

Speaker Gingrich is exciting. Exciting is OK. Speaker Gingrich knows his way around Washington. One does not become Speaker of the House of Representatives without being very politically astute. And he parlayed his government experience into years of making millions of dollars because of his inside Washington connections and savvy. In spite of what he would like voters to think, the Speaker is not just a good fellow from Georgia who isn’t a Washington insider. He is a walking definition of the Washington insider.

Congressman Paul is, simply put, a medical doctor who found a long career in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is not a leader. He has not run any sort of executive business. He is not, even after all those years in the House, a leader. Congressman Paul is an idealist. He attracts young people readily to his ideas. It is refreshing to watch him. Over all these years he has achieved no leadership position in Washington, or in the business world or in the government of a state. He is a man of ideas, not action. Sometimes he operates on the fringes.

Senator Santorum is a conundrum for me. In his short tenure in the U.S. Senate he rose quickly to the leadership. That suggests his colleagues saw leadership potential in him. He is a morally righteous man. He lives his principles. That makes him a Washington insider/player, too. What else has he done? What has he led or operated? Unfortunately, the Senator lost his seat from Pennsylvania by a huge 18% to his Democrat opponent. Now he is selling the idea that he can beat the incumbent president. Maybe a stretch there.

When the Romney campaign was planning for a long contest they assumed they would not have much luck in Iowa, as he did not four years before. They assumed they would do well in New Hampshire, a neighboring state. And they assumed they would not do well in South Carolina because of Tea Party and Evangelicals in the mix.

When the Gingrich campaign was planning, they expected to “show” in Iowa, to be second in New Hampshire and to win in South Carolina.

Congressman Paul did not expect to win in Iowa, NH or SC. He did expect to attract more attention to his philosophy.

Senator Santorum practically moved to Iowa. He hoped to score an upset victory there that would attract money to his campaign and enable him to continue through a few more states. Whether the margin was 8 or 38 it is a stretch to see it as anything more than a tie.

Romney was wrong as he won Iowa. He was right about winning New Hampshire. Then he lost Iowa and went from wrong to right. Then he lost South Carolina as he had originally expected.

Gingrich did OK in Iowa. He did not do OK in NH. He had a huge win in SC.

Santorum is boasting a 30-vote win in Iowa, belatedly announced. Frankly, given his investment of time and money in Iowa, it is hard to see it as a victory worthy of mentioning.

Paul is “on his game.” He is doing what he intended with the intended consequences.

After a brief chance to catch our breath, all these players will be back at it in Florida, except for Paul. It appears that unless someone secures a knockout punch in Florida, the Republican campaign will be going on for some time. In that regard, it very much looks like the long fight between Obama and Clinton four years ago.

Lets keep in mind that after all the bloodletting in the Obama-Clinton fight; the winner went on to win the general election.