THE MIDDLE EAST DEBACLE

Notes of Concern...
...Jack Blair

THE MIDDLE EAST DEBACLE


I ask you to suspend your disbelief and consider:

The Middle East is in turmoil.

These Middle East countries have, by and large, been run by their military through dictators. And the religious leaders have run the military.

Most of these nations have strong religious beliefs and those beliefs involve eliminating competition from other religions through whatever means is necessary.

The dictators pay at least lip service to religion.

The military pay at least lip service to religion.

It would be impossible for either the dictator or his military support to exist without the backing of religious leaders in that part of the world.

Then comes the “revolution.”

People are running in the streets demanding the overthrow of the dictator. The people running in the street are religious, too.
The armies are called upon to defend their dictator but to do so they would have to fire on their people. The religious leaders are in a quandary.

Tough choice.

Solution: remove the dictator and replace him with someone really different in political and religious thinking. I don’t think so.

Remove the dictator and replace him with someone who thinks just like him with reference to political and religious thought. Much more likely.

Around the world our “newsies” start categorizing these riots, protestors and regime changers as people wanting freedom and democracy.

What do you suppose those writers are smoking?

Do the reporters and pundits really find it that easy to completely ignore history in that part of the world? Do they really think these tradition rich countries, nations that are also economically wealthy, are simply going to abandon long held religious beliefs and somehow convert life- long military officers to the belief that the free reign they have enjoyed for years under the current set of rules should be quietly abandoned?

I would argue that these nations have enjoyed considerable economic prosperity.

I would argue that their strongly held religious beliefs make it impossible for them to embrace any sort of democracy.

It has never been the dictators, or the army, who have controlled these people, but rather their religious leaders operating behind the scenes and providing either support to the governments or, as in the current situation, reminding governments of who really controls things.

I do not expect to see any time soon anything remotely resembling what we call “democracy” in any of these countries.

The best I think they can hope for is more of the same but a different face on the statues and billboards. This would be a new sort of dictator, backed by a military, and with both enjoying the support of the various religious leaders.

The worst I think they could see would be a theocracy where the religious leaders just decide to own up to their prominence and control and actually run the government in plain sight of the masses.

Either way, they will be no real friends to us.

Dictators do not give up power easily.

Armies rarely give up power.

The leaders of religions prevalent in the Middle East have more power than any western religious leader, including the Pope, and there is no way they are interested in “democracy” as we see it practiced in other parts of the world.

The more we think we see change in that part of the world the more it will remain, essentially, the same.

Our nation stood quiet at first. Then we supported our old friends in leadership. Then we supported the gangs in the street. Then we decided we could only help out if other countries joined us in the effort. Then we decided to support “no fly zones” to keep dictators and the army from killing people. Later we sent some diplomats.

We have absolutely no idea how to play this out.

In the end not much will really change over there. More importantly, no sudden love for the West will rise up nor will the people of these countries suddenly want to bond with the Christian world.

The West needs to get a quick dose of “reality thinking” and to see that part of the world as “history rich” and “oil rich” and unlikely to want to be “westernized” any time soon.

In fact, they are driven much more by their religious zeal in either converting or eliminating the rest of us.

My take on what is happening is that it is not “democracy” in the streets of the Middle East but rather “theocracy.” I think the people want their country to take a stronger stance against Israel and against the West and against “unbelievers.” Those folks do not now, and never have, “played well with others.”

Some will find my comments cynical.

It would be fine with me to be wrong on this one.

But don’t bet the farm on it.